Cowen Partners in Forbes on the Narrowing CFO-to-CEO Succession Channel
Cowen Partners Executive Search President and Founding Partner Shawn Cole published his latest article in Forbes examining a structural shift in how boards approach CEO succession, and what it means now that the channel they leaned on for the past decade is under strain.
In his article “What Comes Next When The Succession Channel Boards Relied On Is Narrowing,” Shawn traces how the CFO became boards’ preferred internal succession bet, why that pipeline is now thinning, and which executive is positioned to fill the gap.
For most of the past decade, the CFO was the clearest signal of where boards were placing their succession bets. The role evolved from financial stewardship into something far more expansive, with CFOs becoming strategic partners to the CEO and the executives most trusted by the investor community. BCG’s 2026 research found that in unexpected CEO transitions, CFOs are chosen 19% of the time, second only to outside CEOs, while COOs are chosen just 8% of the time.
But the same forces that elevated the CFO are now straining the role. Shawn points to a convergence of pressures, from real-time investor scrutiny and activist demands to expanded accountability for AI and technology decisions, intensifying ESG disclosure requirements, and a volatile macroeconomic environment that lands in the CFO’s lap each quarter. The strain shows in the data: CFO appointments hit a seven-year high in 2025, average tenure is falling, and the role that once served as a launching pad is churning through occupants at an accelerating pace.
With the CFO channel narrowing, Shawn argues the COO is positioned to re-emerge as the board’s preferred internal succession answer. COOs already account for nearly a third of S&P 500 CEO appointments over the past five years. But he is clear this isn’t a return to the old standard, when operational credibility alone was enough. The COO who reclaims the CEO seat will be the one who used the CFO era to diagnose what was missing and deliberately closed those gaps.
The article outlines five capabilities COOs must build to become viable CEO candidates: fluency in investor and capital markets, board presence and governance credibility, external reputation and public voice, strategic vision beyond the operating plan, and comfort with ambiguity and public risk.
Read the full article in Forbes Business Council.
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